The Enlightenment

As we progress through Trump’s second year in office, we must inevitably look towards the 2018 primaries and looming 2020 election. In his year and a half in office, Trump has faced a barrage of scandals and scathing criticism; worse yet, the ongoing Mueller investigation has indicted multiple figures closely linked to the Trump campaign. With all this in mind it begs the question: How scared should Donald Trump be about the 2020 elections?

What the data says

According to FiveThirtyEight, 41.3% of Americans approve of Trump, while 53% disapproving. However, this data is incomplete, as it is just an average figure. How does his approval ratings break down within the political parties?

According to Gallup, Donald Trump maintains a solid 89% approval rating among Republicans, while garnering a measly 13% rating among Democrats. These ratings have changed little since Donald Trump’s first months, suggesting that the various scandals Trump has faced have done little to change the opinions of his voter base. However, a minority of Trump supporters have retracted their support for Trump, as evident on the Trump Regrets twitter page.

As for the 2018 special elections, Democrats have steadily been gaining on the Republicans, with key positions flipping Democrat, such as the junior senate position in Alabama, among others. You can see all the flipped seats here.

Who are the Democrat candidates?

Although Donald Trump has steadily been losing influence, the Democrats will have to bring out a stellar candidate to beat him in the 2020 elections. A few candidates have declared their presidential bid, including Maryland representative John Delaney and businessman Andrew Yang. However, most potential candidates, such as Cory Booker and Bernie Sanders, have decided to wait until after the midterms to make a decision. A full list of Democrat candidates can be found here.

But most importantly…

The big factor that led to Trump’s election was a measly 55% voter turnout in the 2016 election, likely due to overconfident Democrats sure of Clinton’s victory. Having been sobered, these Democrat voters will be unlikely to stay home a second time in the 2020 elections.

Overall, with the steady comeback of Democrat influence in the house, and with more awareness from Democrat voters, it looks like Donald Trump’s re-election prospects are on shaky ground.